Can Haaland, Mbappe, Bellingham, and others surpass Lionel Messi's Ballon d'Or record? A closer look at their chances.

At the age of 37, Lionel Messi is now part of the MLS club Inter Miami where he continues to showcase his legendary skills on the field. It is almost certain that Messi will conclude his illustrious playing career with his current record-breaking collection of eight Ballon d'Or awards. This accomplishment solidifies his position as the player with the most Ballon d'Or trophies in history, surpassing his longtime rival Cristiano Ronaldo who has won five.

Messi and Ronaldo missed out on the 30-man shortlist for the 2024 Ballon d'Or. Is is the first time since 2003 that neither of the 21st century's foremost stars have been nominated.

It certainly feels as if we may go generations before another player of such dominance can challenge Messi's mark. It takes not only a legendary player to assemble such a CV, but it also requires exceptional health and immaculate timing — Messi's career was perfectly slotted into an era where he had just one main challenger for much of his prime.

Yet records were meant to be broken. Could anyone in today's game break his record when their careers are cemented? The Sporting News compiles the most likely players to break his record, given a number of factors, including age, club situation, national team standing, position, skillset, and much more.

MORE: Messi v Ronaldo: Does eighth Ballon D'Or end the 'GOAT' debate?

Most Ballon d'Or awards: Messi leads all-time list

Below is a list of all players who have won the Ballon d'Or more than once.

A reminder, the award was also only eligible to European-born players until 1995 when that rule was changed, opening up the award to all players contracted European clubs. From 2007, any player in any league in the world could be nominated.

PlayerNationAwardsYears WonLionel MessiArgentina82009, '10, '11, '12, '15, '19, '21, '23Cristiano RonaldoPortugal52008, '13, '14, '16, '17Michel PlatiniFrance31983, '84, '85Johan CruyffNetherlands31971, '73, '74Marco van BastenNetherlands31988, '89, '92Franz BeckenbauerGermany21972, '76Alfredo Di StefanoSpain21957, '59Kevin KeeganEngland21978, '79Ronaldo NazarioBrazil21997, '02Karl-Heinz RummeniggeGermany21989, '81Who could break Lionel Messi's Ballon d'Or record?

With Messi's eighth Ballon d'Or now secure, the bar has been set. It seems nearly impossible that Messi, now a 36-year-old and playing for an American club, could add to his total beyond the current number.

It's similarly difficult to see Ronaldo, 39 and plying his trade in Saudi Arabai, winning three more Ballon d'Or awards to match Messi's record.

Thus, we must look to younger players who could, over the course of their still very fresh careers, have a chance to accumulate the necessary total throughout their prime years.

The Sporting News lists the most likely threats to Lionel Messi's nearly untouchable record:

5. Vinicius Jr — Real Madrid / Brazil

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While Brazilian international Vinicius Jr isn't even the most iconic player on his national team quite yet, there's still a good chance that the Real Madrid star takes the next step to challenge the other, more prolific young players at the very top of world football.

With the departure of Karim Benzema to Saudi Arabia, it seemed that Vinicius was poised to take over the goalscoring duties at Real Madrid from his former French teammate. Jude Bellingham took that mantle initially but Vinicius came to the party at the business end of the season.

A semifinal brace at Bayern Munich preceded a game-sealing goal in the UEFA Champions League final against Borussia Dortmund at Wembley. Those are Ballon d'Or worthy exploits.

4. Gavi — Barcelona / Spain

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Few players have found themselves so important for club and country at such a young age than 19-year-old Gavi. A true two-way midfielder who has both attacking prowess and genuine grit, Gavi has blossomed into one of the world's most exceptional No.8s before reaching his 20s.

Fans and media are often wooed by goals, and Gavi is not a true goal scorer, so he would have to overcome that by becoming the best midfielder in the world and maintain that level for over a decade. But that's not an unfathomable target. At his young age, he's already won a La Liga title as well as a Nations League crown with Spain, sitting on 27 caps and five international goals already.

Still, it's hard to see Gavi, at a Barcelona side that's struggling on the European stage of late, becoming an annual Ballon d'Or frontrunner with so many other young players banging in goals and stealing the spotlight. Unfortunately, injury robbed him of a place in Spain's triumphant Euro 2024 campaign.

3. Kylian Mbappe — Real Madrid / France

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For some time, it was thought that Kylian Mbappe would be the heir-apparent to either Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo once the two legends saw their careers wind down. As their legendary times come to an end, Mbappe has for years been considered the next "best player in the world" — indeed some would already claim he's there now.

At 25, Mbappe has already won a World Cup title, reached the final of another, and made the Champions League final as well. His leadership qualities and pure football talent are unrivalled from an all-around attacking standpoint.

Yet that doesn't mean he's the most likely to break Messi's record. With the sudden rise in top-echelon young talent across Europe, the road to eight Ballon d'Or awards is suddenly awash with challengers. Without a single Ballon d'Or trophy in his cabinet to this point, Mbappe may have exhausted a significant portion of his prime without kicking off his challenge to Messi's mantle.

Him move to join Real Madrid and two of the other challengers on this list could see him afforded the opportunity to snatch from their spotlight for himself. There's so much more to come from Mbappe yet.

2. Erling Haaland — Man City / Norway

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When it comes to individual awards, goals are the most intoxicating trait for Ballon d'Or voters, and Erling Haaland has loads of those.

Still just 24, Haaland is a pure goal scorer at heart, setting the Premier League record for goals in a season in his first season in the English top flight, and leading Manchester City to the club's first-ever European championship.

There are, however, two things working against Haaland's chances of collecting such a lofty total of individual awards. First, he plays for a country that is not among the world's elite, and while that can always change, it doesn't seem like Norway will be in a position to put the striker on the global stage at the international level.

Also, he's seen one of the all-time best seasons for a modern striker go unrewarded from a Ballon d'Or standpoint, as Messi's 2022/23 win means that Haaland's record-setting, treble-winning effort wasn't enough to secure an individual trophy.

He's certainly capable of putting up more seasons of that caliber, as a second consecutive Premier League Golden Boot and back-to-back hat-tricks at the start of the 2024/25 campaign proved. But the 2023 Ballon d'Or will remain the one that got away.

1. Jude Bellingham — Real Madrid / England

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Jude Bellingham could not have timed his rise to global superstardom better. Unlike Haaland, who may have seen one of his greatest accomplishments — the 2022/23 treble — fall agonizingly (some might argue unfairly) short of winning the award, Bellingham's first truly great season comes right as the Messi-Ronalso era slams shut.

At just 21, Bellingham a frontrunner for the 2023/24 Ballon d'Or, having exploded into life in his first season at Real Madrid. He is a goal-scoring midfielder who can also provide assists, and play further back in a more defensive role when required. Without him, Madrid would not have stormed to glory in La Liga and the Champions League.

To cap it all off, Bellingham is part of an England team on the rise, which could see him play a significant role at major international tournaments – further boosting his chances of being centre-stage when the lights are brightest. There's no greater threat in the world to Messi's record than the do-it-all English superstar, who currently has the world at his feet.

Honorable mention: Other players who could have a shot

While these five certainly seem like the most likely sources for a challenge to Lionel Messi's extremely lofty total of eight Ballon d'Or trophies, other contenders could possibly step into the window.

The most likely of those not previously mentioned seems to be German wonderkid Jamal Musiala who has dazzled in his early career, but still has a long way to go to reach the heights of those on the previous list, and his talent still feels more like potential than anything tangible.

While Arsenal winger Bukayo Saka is certainly more of a current producer, he will likely have to reach much greater heights with Arsenal and the England national team to be considered a contender. If he can reestablish the Gunners as a Premier League and Champions League title threat, while also pushing the England national team to a Euro or World Cup title, then maybe he could step into the limelight.

Spanish midfielder Gavi made the list, but his counterpart for club and country, but if Lamine Yamal can maintain his startling Euro 2024 form, perhaps he has the best chance of anyone, cutting inside with menace from a right flank Messi once called his own.